World Footwear Retail Flash Reports
Japan Retail: imported inflation troubles retail despite positive signs on consumer mood
Despite positive signs regarding the consumers’ mood, which is leading the BoJ to focus on boosting domestic demand, retailers are facing imported inflation unseen for decades. So, as the yen sinks, it is more accurate to wonder whether Japanese companies’ margins can resist for much longer to fully pass on rising costs to consumers. In addition, the sanctions imposed following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will certainly take a toll on retail, alongside persistent supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic, even as the country moves away from those times. Since expenses on energy and food cannot be readily cut, the slack demand for footwear already observed is far from being a surprise
US Retail: consumer confidence collapses while footwear retail slowly loses its drive
Despite the declining trend of the monthly shoe store retail sales and persistent macroeconomic headwinds such as supply chain disruptions and the continuous rise of inflation, US companies are displaying some optimism towards the remaining year. That is not the same as saying there is no caution or concerns on the horizon. The pace of the increase in footwear prices is in fact slowing, suggesting that the pressure of demand might be no more at work in the US. The critical point is that consumer confidence collapsed due to inflation and the war in Ukraine, which might restrain consumer spending this year
Germany Retail: war and inflation raise concerns for retail
Despite the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions in February, the declining trend of the TCF (Textile, Clothing, and Footwear) Retail Sales Index is clear and is aligned with the plunge in consumer confidence. The war in Ukraine and the high inflation are playing a major role in the severe blow inflicted on both consumers’ and retailers’ confidence. Meanwhile, footwear consumer prices have slightly increased in March, and it is foreseeable that companies continue passing on higher costs to consumers in the near future
Spain Retail: sales increase in the first quarter despite tricky macro-environment
Following an abrupt drop in consumers’ confidence in March due to the war in Ukraine, on top of an alarming inflationary climate, Spanish consumers appear to regard the current situation as temporary. In fact, retail sales of clothes and accessories have increased by 19.1% in the entire first quarter of 2022, despite less generous discounts thanks to this year’s cost inflation. Margin protection is certainly at the top of retailers’ agenda now. Meanwhile, the online and physical retail are somehow at a truce
France Retail: retailers’ confidence sank in the first quarter of 2022
Despite the Eurostat TCF (Textile, Clothing and Footwear) suggesting the return of retail to normalcy, there are red signs undermining not only consumers’ confidence, but also the retailers’ one, who before had displayed some insensitivity towards risks. Surging energy prices, inflationary pressure and the war in Ukraine are overshadowing any boost from an easing of COVID-19 restrictions. The subsequent increase in costs does make us wonder why TCF retail is not in the red yet
UK Retail: retail prospects for the next months lean to the downside
In the first quarter of 2022, TCF (Textile, Clothing & Footwear) Retail Sales Index returned to pre-pandemic levels, showing that it is no longer sensitive to COVID-19. However, its positive behaviour is somewhat puzzling: consumer pessimism continues to plunge, most likely due to the rising inflation, which hit a record 7% in March, placing pressure on manufacturers’ costs. In addition, it is yet early to quantify the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on European retail markets
Japan Retail: retail prospects are again at stake
Hope for a return to normality in March, following the lift of the quasi-emergency restrictions imposed to control the Omicron-variant outbreak at the end of 2021, appears to be off the picture. The impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on households and companies, which is prompting a hike in commodities and food prices, can no longer be discarded. Most likely, the footwear retail growth momentum of the final months of last year will not be accompanied by an increase in prices to avoid scaring away consumers, whose confidence suffered yet another blow in front of the international conjuncture
US Retail: COVID-19 is no longer a concern for footwear retail
The monthly shoe stores retail trajectory shows that footwear retail has begun to disregard any COVID-19 related concerns since the second quarter of 2021. However, there are other worries on the horizon. Consumers’ mood has been trailing a downwards trend, hitting the lowest value in January. At the same time, prices have been quickly increasing since September, and the global impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine might contribute to undermining future retail prospects
Germany retail: COVID-19 still looms on retail performance
As of December 2021, the German TCF retail index is far from providing a crystal-clear reading. A sudden improvement in the last month of the year contrasts with mixed feelings on confidence and insights from various sources. The decline in footwear prices during that month, despite the unexpected inflation surge by 5.3%, adds up as another contradictory sign. While the picture is not quite transparent yet, it is safe to presume that the online shopping category is leaning towards pandemic-neutral growth
Spain Retail: leaving COVID-19 fears behind
Despite the spread of the Omicron variant in the last quarter of 2021, the TCF retail sales index shows overall a slow, but positive trend, and retailers’ confidence has not returned below pre-pandemic levels. Consumers are less optimistic, but the results are not substantially worse than two years ago. At the same time, they have embraced e-commerce, which seems to have demarcated itself from the course of the pandemic
France Retail: retailers more confident than consumers amid an uncertain environment
Although footwear retail sales in France have returned to pre-pandemic levels, the beginning of 2022 is being characterized by some uncertainty. Consumers’ mood has become more volatile towards the end of 2021, reaching minus 8 points in January, and rising inflation has not spared the sector. Nonetheless, retailers are proving to be more confident than consumers, displaying some insensitivity towards risks
UK Retail: the first months of 2022 might be a cold shower for the expectations of retailers
Although the TCF sales index surpassed the 2018 baseline in November, the downwards trend of pessimism experienced among consumers since July last year is raising concerns. In fact, last month, the consumer confidence index dropped to its lowest level in 11 months. Retailers should be wary of consumers fears over surging inflation, rising fuel bills and the prospect of interest rises, while managing supply difficulties brought by the ongoing unwind of the Brexit process
Japan Retail: retail recovery didn't take place and confidence might be endangered if prices go up
The expected retail boost from the Olympic games never took place in Japan, and the retail index is still below the normal pace registered before the pandemic. With the lifting of the State of Emergency things are expected to improve. If retailers are still lacking confidence, consumers seem to have improved their mood. However, with a rising expecting about the growth of prices, this could negatively impact the good mood of consumers and further deteriorate the confidence of retailers
US Retail: the holiday season might not be enough to withdraw the retailer's worries
The Retail Sales Index in the US Shoe Stores has registered a favourable pace between March and August, which could give good perspectives for the near future. However, footwear retail gains are dwindling, closing at only 4 percentage points upside in August, after 11pp above the line in March. On top of that the consumers’ mood is plunging again and with inflation entering a danger zone in the US, retailers have reasons to be worried, especially if footwear prices stay in the upper range for a longer time
Germany Retail: too early to claim victory on the retail performance
In recent months, the Textile Retail Index (including Clothing & Footwear) in Germany compares well to the pre-pandemic 2019 data. However, one must remember that 2019 was a terrible year for the German economy. As we write this Retail Flash, the consumer price index for footwear is following the upwards movement of prices in general and retailers are now looking on how to offset higher costs of raw materials and logistics in footwear imported from overseas. That said, it seems too early to claim victory on the retail performance in Germany-
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