World Footwear Retail Flash Reports
US Retail: there’s still a great deal of uncertainty
There are still no solid signs of a recovery in the footwear retail sector. Despite mirroring last year’s trend, sales are consistently lower than in 2023, and footwear imports continue their downward trajectory. This may suggest that prices have not yet reached a level where consumers will bite. The truth is that the US economy has made great progress and inflation has eased considerably, but not enough to reassure consumers, who are still uncertain about what will happen next. And when that happens, discretionary items always pay the price
UK Retail: are the winds starting to blow in retailers’ favour?
Despite a slight upturn in sales of Textile, Clothing and Footwear in March, a number of factors, including an early Easter, poor weather and the high cost of living, soon led to a visible lack of demand. This will most likely lead to a decline in the number of footwear imports, breaking the growth trend seen in the first quarter of the year. On the bright side, inflation is at its lowest since November 2021 and the economy seems to be picking up, so there is room for some improvement in consumer sentiment. With the UK on the brink of a General Election and a series of sporting events promising to bring people onto the streets, are the winds starting to blow in retailers’ favour?
Germany Retail: positive signs on the horizon, but it’s not yet time to pop the champagne
Good news keep coming, but no one is out of the woods yet. Footwear retail sales outperformed overall retail sales in January and February, although they remain lower than the same period last year. Consumer sentiment remains negative but is improving, driven by lower inflation rates and wage growth, and retailer sentiment, although more negative, is following the trend. With recent news of a better economic outlook for the year and a rise in the value of imports at the start of the year, there is a chance that consumers will pull retailers up. Let’s see how the coming months unfold
France Retail: the ball is in the consumers’ court to boost retail
The first quarter of the year brought some contradictory signs in France, but perhaps all is not lost, especially for footwear retailers. Prices in the category have been rising at a slower pace than general items, becoming more stable every month, which perhaps helps explain the (albeit residual) increase in footwear sales in March. Confidence indicators for both retailers and consumers remain in the red, but the small year-on-year increase in imports at the start of 2024 points to higher demand later in the year. With the European elections in June and the Olympic and Paralympic Games in August, as well as real wage growth, the ball is in consumers’ court to boost retail
Spain Retail: concerns grow for retailers after an unexpected fall in sales
While 2024 began with consistent, albeit modest (around 1% monthly) growth, a concerning trend emerged in March, with retail sales falling sharply by 7.9% as compared to the previous month. However, a silver lining remains. Fashion is currently the retail sector experiencing the least inflation, and consumers still hold some optimism about the overall economy. This suggests that a period of resilience may be needed from retailers, but a potential rebound could be on the horizon
Japan Retail: trade did not improve at the end of 2023, but a recovery is not out of the picture
As anticipated in the previous edition of the WF Retail Japan, trade (physical and online) did not improve at the end of 2023. What’s more, the country unexpectedly slipped into recession amid sluggish consumption and pressure on retail costs due to the weak yen. However, it’s expected that the easing of consumer inflation and the recovery of wages due to labour shortages could occur in the first half of 2024 and both consumer and retailer sentiment is on an upward trend. So perhaps a modest recovery could take place soon
US Retail: it’s all about the prices
There are signs that footwear retail sales could rise moderately in the near term, but this will all depend on future price behaviour. On the one hand, the CPI suggests that the risk of renewed price rises is well contained, but on the other hand, retailers continue to manage excess inventories, so their pricing power may not be more evident until 2024. Perhaps better news comes from consumers’ inflation expectations for the next 12 months, as they seem to believe that they will get a break from inflation, which usually leads to more discretionary demand
UK Retail: challenging times may be ahead after disappointing fourth quarter in 2023
Retail sales of clothing and footwear disappointed in the last quarter of the year after a promising start on Black Friday. This is not particularly surprising given that prices in the category fell more slowly than overall prices and items remain relatively more expensive, making consumers more cautious in their choices. There are some long-term positive signs for retailers when it comes to consumer confidence, but there are likely to be some bumps in the road in the meantime
Germany Retail: despite some good news, retailers continue to worry
German retailers’ worries are not over. Despite a slight uptrend in the Textile, Clothing, and Footwear (TCF) Retail index, in line with the recent positive trend in consumer confidence indicators, their concerns go well beyond nominal performance and focus on whether inflation will continue to erode margins. Put simply, passing on costs to customers or closing down altogether is still keeping them up at night. As the first quarter is traditionally slow, and the volatile geopolitical situation could change at any moment, we are cautious about making near-term forecasts
Spain Retail: clouds are lifting for retail
Despite some concerns about inflation, retailers were optimistic about their prospects for the end of 2023, and data on imports at least confirmed a stabilisation in the footwear trade on favourable grounds. Looking at our previous Retail Flash, it’s now safe to say that the clouds are lifting over retail in Spain. On a different note, online fashion has clearly lost the momentum generated during the pandemic
France Retail: with no crystal ball and eyes wide shut
Despite the slowdown in inflation in recent months and the slight improvement in consumer confidence, footwear retail remains on a downward trend. There is some hope for an upturn in the retail environment in the first half of 2024, but the available data on imports at the moment does not allow us to look ahead with sufficient clarity. Meanwhile, the online second-hand market shows signs of becoming increasingly relevant in France
Japan Retail: footwear trade is not expected to improve until the end of the year
Despite some positive news on the growth of department store sales and the return of foreign tourists, rising consumer prices set alarm bells ringing in September, suggesting that Japanese consumers in general are cutting back on spending and may be at their breaking point. In addition, the reduction in the volume of footwear imports and the impact of the country’s monetary policy on the cost of imported goods is another sign that footwear retail is unlikely to improve by the end of the year. The Government has been taking measures, but the outcome shouldn’t be seen until 2024
US Retail: footwear prospects until the end of the year are at a standstill
Despite signs of a certain resilience from consumers over the summer, companies are taking a cautious approach for the rest of 2023. The long deceleration in footwear inflation came to a halt in August, so if the trend recedes, wage increases will have to follow suit, or the positive outlook for footwear retail could be jeopardised. It’s not surprising how carefully retailers are managing their inventory at the moment: neither too much nor too little
UK Retail: stabilisation of the footwear trade is the best we can hope for at the moment
The bad weather in July and August may not have helped retail over the summer, but it would be ill-advised to believe that’s what it’s all about. Despite some improvements in the general consumer price index, the footwear segment continues to show some resistance to going along with the trend. Inflation will have to continue to fall in order to contribute to sustained sales growth in the future, as most consumers have too much on their plate to spend on non-discretionary items. The only positive sign comes from imports, whose data seems to indicate that at least a stabilisation in retail trade is on the horizon
Germany Retail: retailers’ troubles are far from over
Confidence indicators are a red flag for retail at the moment, especially on the retailers’ side. The slow decline in inflation is likely to have a negative impact on consumer prices in the clothing and footwear segment, which will undoubtedly continue to limit consumers’ purchasing power; even the fall in import prices is not entirely positive news, as it will take time to translate into reality. Only the online channel seems to be more optimistic about the times ahead-
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