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Japan Retail: trade did not improve at the end of 2023, but a recovery is not out of the picture
As anticipated in the previous edition of the WF Retail Japan, trade (physical and online) did not improve at the end of 2023. What’s more, the country unexpectedly slipped into recession amid sluggish consumption and pressure on retail costs due to the weak yen. However, it’s expected that the easing of consumer inflation and the recovery of wages due to labour shortages could occur in the first half of 2024 and both consumer and retailer sentiment is on an upward trend. So perhaps a modest recovery could take place soon
Japan Retail: footwear trade is not expected to improve until the end of the year
Despite some positive news on the growth of department store sales and the return of foreign tourists, rising consumer prices set alarm bells ringing in September, suggesting that Japanese consumers in general are cutting back on spending and may be at their breaking point. In addition, the reduction in the volume of footwear imports and the impact of the country’s monetary policy on the cost of imported goods is another sign that footwear retail is unlikely to improve by the end of the year. The Government has been taking measures, but the outcome shouldn’t be seen until 2024
Japan Retail: mixed signs cast a shadow over a clear outlook for the rest of the year
The growth rate of footwear consumer prices has largely outpaced that of the overall prices. This is not a good sign for the footwear sector, as discretionary items are always the first to be discarded by consumers, but it is not all bad news. The truth is consumer confidence has rebound at the start of the year, private consumption has shown some resilience and the return of tourists is a welcoming sign. Perhaps most surprising is the fact that the volume of imports has not been affected by the weakening of the yen. It remains to be seen how the outlook will unfold
Japan retail: unlocking consumer confidence is key for retail
The volume of footwear imports closed 2022 about 10 percentage points below the 2015 baseline, suggesting that the impact of the imported inflation on prices has been clouding the real performance of retail sales in the category. Both the government and some companies have offered inflation allowances or anti-inflation subsidies, but given the saving Japanese mindset, it can be expected that any additional disposable income will not necessarily be used for discretionary shopping, such as clothing and footwear. To boost consumption, it is therefore needed to unlock consumer confidence, which improved only marginally In February, and appears now to be flattening
Japan Retail: apparel and footwear retail will hardly remain safe amidst such troubling waters
The further easing of COVID-19 border control measures brought tourists back to the stores, but the anticipated consumption-led recovery is being curbed by the high wholesale inflation, as the weak yen is inflating the costs of imports. On the other end, if the yen depreciation is fostering exports, the fear of a global economic slowdown is a bearer of bad news. Both the Apparel & Accessories Retail and the Consumer Confidence indicator are currently trending down, and not to increase prices is no longer an option. As for online commerce, now that the pandemic boosting effect is over, the competitiveness between this channel and physical retail is at stake, however, it is yet soon to claim a winner
Japan Retail: imported inflation troubles retail despite positive signs on consumer mood
Despite positive signs regarding the consumers’ mood, which is leading the BoJ to focus on boosting domestic demand, retailers are facing imported inflation unseen for decades. So, as the yen sinks, it is more accurate to wonder whether Japanese companies’ margins can resist for much longer to fully pass on rising costs to consumers. In addition, the sanctions imposed following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will certainly take a toll on retail, alongside persistent supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic, even as the country moves away from those times. Since expenses on energy and food cannot be readily cut, the slack demand for footwear already observed is far from being a surprise
France Retail: retailers more confident than consumers amid an uncertain environment
Although footwear retail sales in France have returned to pre-pandemic levels, the beginning of 2022 is being characterized by some uncertainty. Consumers’ mood has become more volatile towards the end of 2021, reaching minus 8 points in January, and rising inflation has not spared the sector. Nonetheless, retailers are proving to be more confident than consumers, displaying some insensitivity towards risks
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