World Footwear Retail Flash Reports
Germany Retail: a bleak horizon for both the physical and online retail
Consumers seem to have definitely pulled the rug out from under footwear companies, as can be seen by the wave of insolvencies observed in the footwear sector in recent months, in addition to the store closures recorded in 2022. And the online channel is having no better luck, with sales progressively losing the momentum of the positive results recorded in the summer of last year. Overall, the future of retail looks set to remain a little gloomier in the coming months
Spain Retail: good signs for retail in the first quarter of the year
Several indicators showed that consumer confidence is improving, reversing the downward trend seen after the invasion of Ukraine, but overall, consumer sentiment remains rather pessimistic. On the other hand, retailer confidence has been on the rise since January. In fact, the TCF (Textile, Clothing and Footwear) Retail Index (seasonally adjusted, by Eurostat), which had been recovering modestly from June to November 2022, soared thereafter as if Christmas were an uninterrupted season for the entire first quarter of 2023, and even the imports’ behaviour seems to have anticipated a sales boom. Meanwhile, expectations for online sales in 2023 are overall positive, but comparisons with the pandemic period might be misleading
France Retail: prospects for the clothing and footwear sectors are still far from positive
The stabilization of the pattern of weakening French consumer confidence in the first quarter of the year cannot mask the pessimism that is still being felt in the country, especially in the context of social unrest. Moreover, in this reality of high inflation, neither do price increases hide the contraction in volumes sold nor is it possible to ignore the difficulties faced by companies more exposed to the domestic market due to increased operating costs (rents and energy) or even the stagnation of the online channel. Retail prospects for the clothing and footwear sectors are, therefore, still far from positive
Japan retail: unlocking consumer confidence is key for retail
The volume of footwear imports closed 2022 about 10 percentage points below the 2015 baseline, suggesting that the impact of the imported inflation on prices has been clouding the real performance of retail sales in the category. Both the government and some companies have offered inflation allowances or anti-inflation subsidies, but given the saving Japanese mindset, it can be expected that any additional disposable income will not necessarily be used for discretionary shopping, such as clothing and footwear. To boost consumption, it is therefore needed to unlock consumer confidence, which improved only marginally In February, and appears now to be flattening
US Retail: slower growth for retail in the coming months
The available data suggests that footwear sales dipped in the last quarter of 2022. With inflation eating the wage growth and impacting the stability of the labour market, US consumers appear to have deemed footwear purchases as not essential. This situation is somewhat corroborated by the negative performances of several companies in the fashion category, such as Capri, Nordstrom and VF Corp, in the fourth quarter of the year. Their main concern relates to the excess inventory, which led to a highly promotional environment and caused imports to reduce. Accounting for the mixed feelings on the consumers’ side, it is safe to endorse cautious prospects for retail for these first months of 2023
Germany Retail: one swallow doesn’t make a summer
Despite the upturn in consumer confidence observed in the last quarter of 2022, there is still much concern among retailers. Footwear imports are following an upward trend since October, which could be read as a good sign concerning the health of retail, but German businesses are quite familiar with the sensitivity of their consumers to slight changes in overall economic conditions, and inflation is still expected to impact directly sales. Caution seems definitely to be the watchword at the start of 2023
Spain Retail: retailers and consumers have shown themselves resilient at the end of 2022
The Textile, Clothing, and Footwear (TCF) retail sales index has improved in the fourth quarter of last year and several companies in the category appear to be less fearful about 2023, especially after their positive annual results. Moreover, retailers’ and consumers’ confidence indicators are showing that despite some lingering pessimism due to the challenging macroeconomic environment, things won’t get necessarily worse in the short term.
France Retail: inflation will yet impact retail, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel
Figures by the Banque de France suggest that retailers may have felt some relief in December 2022, but the weight of inflation in these results must not be overlooked, with turnover growing quite faster than the production itself. Moreover, the impact of inflation on footwear might yet be to be felt. French consumers tend to purchase the category during sales, but retailers may not be able to make the big discounts that would make consumers shop in a context of still significant inflation due to the need of preserving margins. However, there are signs of light at the end of the tunnel, as retailers’ and consumers’ confidence indicators show that there is room, at least, for the ceasing of confidence deterioration in 2023.
UK Retail: bad odds for retail should consumer confidence remain on the floor
The Textile, Clothing, and Footwear (TCF) by the ONS stood above the 2019 baseline in the last two months of 2022, no doubt sustained by Christmas sales. But forecasts for the coming months are not so positive. The strain on household budgets due to the cost-of-living crisis will prove to be a challenge for retailers as well because while ongoing inflation will make sales appear to be rising, volumes will decline. Consumer confidence may be key in this equation. Even if it slightly improved in December, it was the first time in the GfK’s consumer confidence survey in the nearly 50-year history that a run of nine successive months of -40 pp or worse occurred. Should this continue, the odds are not good for retail
Japan Retail: apparel and footwear retail will hardly remain safe amidst such troubling waters
The further easing of COVID-19 border control measures brought tourists back to the stores, but the anticipated consumption-led recovery is being curbed by the high wholesale inflation, as the weak yen is inflating the costs of imports. On the other end, if the yen depreciation is fostering exports, the fear of a global economic slowdown is a bearer of bad news. Both the Apparel & Accessories Retail and the Consumer Confidence indicator are currently trending down, and not to increase prices is no longer an option. As for online commerce, now that the pandemic boosting effect is over, the competitiveness between this channel and physical retail is at stake, however, it is yet soon to claim a winner
US Retail: not all news are bad for retail
The available data suggests that retailers made sure to fill up their stocks this year, most likely causing supply to outstrip demand. But while demand may have slowed down, mainly due to high inflation, spending has not ceased, and retailers are expected to increase their promotions through the end of the year to dispose of marked-down excess inventory. Consumer confidence indicators are somewhat mixed, but it is safe to assume that, at least, it has stopped bleeding. In fact, the contrast with European consumers is clear, showing that US shoppers are less sensitive to the geopolitical risks concerning the ongoing war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, though slowly, footwear prices increases are starting to decelerate
Germany Retail: after a surprising summer, retail might not be able to withhold the impacts of recession
The analysis of both TCF (Textile, Clothing, & Footwear) Retail Index and footwear imports show that German consumers chose “to enjoy the present before it is too late”. In July, retail trade was still healthy enough to accommodate the price increases caused, first, by the impact of the pandemic on the global supply, and then, by the skyrocketing of energy prices following the Ukraine crisis, not to mention the high inflation. However, given the free fall of consumers’ and retailers’ confidence observed since March, additional uncertainties are expected to arise throughout Autumn. Furthermore, despite all gains observed in the recent past, the online seems to be losing some track, and the macroeconomic environment will not be an ally during the second half of 2022
Spain Retail: footwear retail fears the end of the year on account of macroeconomic uncertainty
Looking exclusively into the available evidence from the comparison between the monthly behaviour of footwear imports and the TCF (Textile, Clothing, & Footwear) Retail Index in Spain, as well as the TCF Retail Indicator by Eurostat, there are not yet red lights on the retail side, so far. But, as more consumers struggle to make ends meet with high inflation and increases in gas and electricity, footwear retail is expected to soon be a victim of the need to divert from non-essentials. Meanwhile, online sales appear to have stabilized, so, with the COVID-19 influence out of the picture, it is up to retailers to continue investing in this channel, where there is much yet to be done
France Retail: news are not uplifting footwear retail
The Footwear Retail Sales Index (by BdF) reached in July its lower score in thirteen months in a row, and data from imports from the same month which will most likely make importers revise their decisions to the downside after the increasing value available for june. Despite a slight relief in consumer confidence in August due to Governmental aid, the increase in prices left little space in the wallet for discretionary footwear purchases. Meanwhile, online retail seems to have gained about 50 percentage points in 30 months in France, but data does not allow us yet to conclude whether the footwear segment shares this performance
UK Retail: the second quarter might have been the lull before the storm
Despite a 6 percentage points gain in the TCF (Textile, Clothing, & Footwear) Retail Sales Index in the second quarter of 2022, over the prior one, and a positive trajectory in footwear imports, prospects do not look good for retail. Amidst skyrocketing inflation and the worst consumer sentiment since 1974, the footwear consumer can barely afford further price increases, making the retail volume tilted to the downside. With the threat of a recession from the fourth quarter on, the majority of retailers believe that the cost-of-living crisis will be almost twice as damaging as the COVID-19 pandemic-
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