Confidence
US Retail: slower growth for retail in the coming months
The available data suggests that footwear sales dipped in the last quarter of 2022. With inflation eating the wage growth and impacting the stability of the labour market, US consumers appear to have deemed footwear purchases as not essential. This situation is somewhat corroborated by the negative performances of several companies in the fashion category, such as Capri, Nordstrom and VF Corp, in the fourth quarter of the year. Their main concern relates to the excess inventory, which led to a highly promotional environment and caused imports to reduce. Accounting for the mixed feelings on the consumers’ side, it is safe to endorse cautious prospects for retail for these first months of 2023
Germany Retail: one swallow doesn’t make a summer
Despite the upturn in consumer confidence observed in the last quarter of 2022, there is still much concern among retailers. Footwear imports are following an upward trend since October, which could be read as a good sign concerning the health of retail, but German businesses are quite familiar with the sensitivity of their consumers to slight changes in overall economic conditions, and inflation is still expected to impact directly sales. Caution seems definitely to be the watchword at the start of 2023
UK consumer confidence rebounds to the highest level in almost a year
The latest data by GfK shows that UK consumer confidence hit in February the highest level since April 2022, thus displaying households’ resilience despite the cost-of-living crisis
Spain Retail: retailers and consumers have shown themselves resilient at the end of 2022
The Textile, Clothing, and Footwear (TCF) retail sales index has improved in the fourth quarter of last year and several companies in the category appear to be less fearful about 2023, especially after their positive annual results. Moreover, retailers’ and consumers’ confidence indicators are showing that despite some lingering pessimism due to the challenging macroeconomic environment, things won’t get necessarily worse in the short term.
France Retail: inflation will yet impact retail, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel
Figures by the Banque de France suggest that retailers may have felt some relief in December 2022, but the weight of inflation in these results must not be overlooked, with turnover growing quite faster than the production itself. Moreover, the impact of inflation on footwear might yet be to be felt. French consumers tend to purchase the category during sales, but retailers may not be able to make the big discounts that would make consumers shop in a context of still significant inflation due to the need of preserving margins. However, there are signs of light at the end of the tunnel, as retailers’ and consumers’ confidence indicators show that there is room, at least, for the ceasing of confidence deterioration in 2023.
UK Retail: bad odds for retail should consumer confidence remain on the floor
The Textile, Clothing, and Footwear (TCF) by the ONS stood above the 2019 baseline in the last two months of 2022, no doubt sustained by Christmas sales. But forecasts for the coming months are not so positive. The strain on household budgets due to the cost-of-living crisis will prove to be a challenge for retailers as well because while ongoing inflation will make sales appear to be rising, volumes will decline. Consumer confidence may be key in this equation. Even if it slightly improved in December, it was the first time in the GfK’s consumer confidence survey in the nearly 50-year history that a run of nine successive months of -40 pp or worse occurred. Should this continue, the odds are not good for retail
UK retail sales slowdown in January
Following the Christmas boom, inflationary pressures caused total retail sales to rose by 4.2% in January, around half December’s pace and down from the 11.9% growth recorded a year earlier
UK consumer confidence picked up in the last quarter of 2022
The latest Deloitte Consumer Tracker revealed that after 15 months of consecutive decline, UK consumer confidence improved slightly by 0.6% in the last quarter of 2022 to -19.7%
British Retail Consortium forecasts low retail sales growth for 2023
According to the British Retail Consortium (BRC), UK retail sales will grow between 2.3% to 3.5% in 2023, with the pace somewhat picking up in the second half of the year
US consumer confidence hits four-month low
According to the Conference Board's index, confidence among US consumers declined in November to the lowest level since July amid continuing inflation and rising interest rates
UK: cost-of-living crisis to impact Christmas spending habits
Nearly half of UK consumers (43%) are expecting to spend less over the upcoming festive season, as compared to 22% in the same period last year. Consumer confidence is at an all-time low
US Retail: not all news are bad for retail
The available data suggests that retailers made sure to fill up their stocks this year, most likely causing supply to outstrip demand. But while demand may have slowed down, mainly due to high inflation, spending has not ceased, and retailers are expected to increase their promotions through the end of the year to dispose of marked-down excess inventory. Consumer confidence indicators are somewhat mixed, but it is safe to assume that, at least, it has stopped bleeding. In fact, the contrast with European consumers is clear, showing that US shoppers are less sensitive to the geopolitical risks concerning the ongoing war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, though slowly, footwear prices increases are starting to decelerate
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Germany Retail: after a surprising summer, retail might not be able to withhold the impacts of recession
The analysis of both TCF (Textile, Clothing, & Footwear) Retail Index and footwear imports show that German consumers chose “to enjoy the present before it is too late”. In July, retail trade was still healthy enough to accommodate the price increases caused, first, by the impact of the pandemic on the global supply, and then, by the skyrocketing of energy prices following the Ukraine crisis, not to mention the high inflation. However, given the free fall of consumers’ and retailers’ confidence observed since March, additional uncertainties are expected to arise throughout Autumn. Furthermore, despite all gains observed in the recent past, the online seems to be losing some track, and the macroeconomic environment will not be an ally during the second half of 2022
Spain Retail: footwear retail fears the end of the year on account of macroeconomic uncertainty
Looking exclusively into the available evidence from the comparison between the monthly behaviour of footwear imports and the TCF (Textile, Clothing, & Footwear) Retail Index in Spain, as well as the TCF Retail Indicator by Eurostat, there are not yet red lights on the retail side, so far. But, as more consumers struggle to make ends meet with high inflation and increases in gas and electricity, footwear retail is expected to soon be a victim of the need to divert from non-essentials. Meanwhile, online sales appear to have stabilized, so, with the COVID-19 influence out of the picture, it is up to retailers to continue investing in this channel, where there is much yet to be done-
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