World Footwear Retail Flash Reports
Spain Retail: leaving COVID-19 fears behind
Despite the spread of the Omicron variant in the last quarter of 2021, the TCF retail sales index shows overall a slow, but positive trend, and retailers’ confidence has not returned below pre-pandemic levels. Consumers are less optimistic, but the results are not substantially worse than two years ago. At the same time, they have embraced e-commerce, which seems to have demarcated itself from the course of the pandemic
France Retail: retailers more confident than consumers amid an uncertain environment
Although footwear retail sales in France have returned to pre-pandemic levels, the beginning of 2022 is being characterized by some uncertainty. Consumers’ mood has become more volatile towards the end of 2021, reaching minus 8 points in January, and rising inflation has not spared the sector. Nonetheless, retailers are proving to be more confident than consumers, displaying some insensitivity towards risks
UK Retail: the first months of 2022 might be a cold shower for the expectations of retailers
Although the TCF sales index surpassed the 2018 baseline in November, the downwards trend of pessimism experienced among consumers since July last year is raising concerns. In fact, last month, the consumer confidence index dropped to its lowest level in 11 months. Retailers should be wary of consumers fears over surging inflation, rising fuel bills and the prospect of interest rises, while managing supply difficulties brought by the ongoing unwind of the Brexit process
Japan Retail: retail recovery didn't take place and confidence might be endangered if prices go up
The expected retail boost from the Olympic games never took place in Japan, and the retail index is still below the normal pace registered before the pandemic. With the lifting of the State of Emergency things are expected to improve. If retailers are still lacking confidence, consumers seem to have improved their mood. However, with a rising expecting about the growth of prices, this could negatively impact the good mood of consumers and further deteriorate the confidence of retailers
US Retail: the holiday season might not be enough to withdraw the retailer's worries
The Retail Sales Index in the US Shoe Stores has registered a favourable pace between March and August, which could give good perspectives for the near future. However, footwear retail gains are dwindling, closing at only 4 percentage points upside in August, after 11pp above the line in March. On top of that the consumers’ mood is plunging again and with inflation entering a danger zone in the US, retailers have reasons to be worried, especially if footwear prices stay in the upper range for a longer time
Germany Retail: too early to claim victory on the retail performance
In recent months, the Textile Retail Index (including Clothing & Footwear) in Germany compares well to the pre-pandemic 2019 data. However, one must remember that 2019 was a terrible year for the German economy. As we write this Retail Flash, the consumer price index for footwear is following the upwards movement of prices in general and retailers are now looking on how to offset higher costs of raw materials and logistics in footwear imported from overseas. That said, it seems too early to claim victory on the retail performance in Germany
Retail take-off in Spain is not clear, despite improvement in confidence
Retail Sales Index in specialized stores in Spain are still some 20 percentage points below the pre-pandemic levels, registered in 2019. Confidence seems to be improving for consumers and retailers, but importers are more cautious. Online continues with a good performance, however, the online share is not enough to push retail up. Developments in the coming months will reveal the way for retail in Spain
France Retail: consumers confidence and footwear retail back to pre-pandemic levels
The increase in French footwear imports from May onwards reflects the reaction of importers following the COVID-19 wave earlier in the year. In the third quarter of the current year, consumers’ confidence and footwear retail figures have shown a return to the pre-pandemic levels. In this scenario, the expectation is that footwear sales could accelerate soon, even before the year ends
UK Retail: COVID-19 might be alleviating but there is still no sunrise for Retail
As vaccination levels increase and the restrictive measures are lifted the UK retail industry could be on the expectation that solid improvement would be on the way. However, Consumer Confidence has been fading away since July, and Textile, Clothing & Footwear store sales have been on a slide in the last few months. With the supply chain issues impacting the footwear industry and the lorries shortage, this could be a perfect storm for more bad news
Japan Retail: No Olympic medal for retail sales
June started with some good perspectives as consumer morale in the Japanese market was the strongest in 16 months. However, the retailer’s sentiment is not accompanying, and a new State of Emergency in Tokyo is not promising good news. The Apparel & Accessories (including footwear) Retail Sales Index also suffered from less consumer confidence after March. And with no international visitors going to Japan to attend the Olympics, recovery chances of the retail industry will definitely be impacted
US Retail: a friendly atmosphere for retail
The consumer confidence momentum in the US is in good shape, resulting in the best results achieved in more than a year. Footwear consumer prices have increased significantly since February, and after a long year of deflation this is good news for retailers. As for ecommerce, the post-pandemic normalization is expected to brake the online impetus. However, the expectation is that the upwards online share trend will resume at least at the pre-pandemic ending point
Germany Retail: Better confidence with cautious retailers
The confidence background for retail in Germany is getting better, being the improvement noticeable for both consumers and retailers. Notwithstanding, the seasonally adjusted Textile, Clothing and Footwear (TCF) Retail Index has been rather volatile since December, with new decline registered in April, closing about the same 40 percentage points (pp) below the baseline as one year before. Online retail seems to be a winner, once again, and a recent study by McKinsey confirms that the online purchase during COVID-19 for footwear was 61% with a positive net intent of +26 pp to continue to do so after the pandemic
Spain Retail: are consumers curing their entrenched pessimism?
As the new pandemic wave seems to be fading away in Spain, indicators are improving. In the last two months with data available (March and April) Footwear Imports and the Textile, Clothing and Footwear (TCF) Retail Index performed much better than in 2020. Adding to list of good news is the consumers and retailers' confidence at their maximum scores since March 2020. With the online retail being at its maximum as well, the question now is whether omnichannel strategies from physical operators will be strong enough?
France Retail: high confidence gives retail good signs
Confidence of both consumers and retailers improved in the last few months in France, contradicting the general expectation of the negative impact of the new lockdowns. Footwear retail, which had a deep fall back in April, improved significantly in May. And good news extend to the online, as lockdowns have favoured the internet sales share against the physical store trade for many categories, with apparel and footwear standing out
UK Retail: Anticipating a new Retail Normalcy
With the seasonally adjusted TCF (Textile, Clothing & Footwear) Retail Sales Index successfully resuming the 2018 baseline, a new Retail Normalcy is anticipated. Importers, on their side, have well sensed since February that retail was about to reignite, as depicted by the increase in the monthly footwear imports. As the vaccination process evolves favourably in the UK, Consumer Confidence in the country seems to be unstoppable-
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