Imports
Spain Retail: good signs for retail in the first quarter of the year
Several indicators showed that consumer confidence is improving, reversing the downward trend seen after the invasion of Ukraine, but overall, consumer sentiment remains rather pessimistic. On the other hand, retailer confidence has been on the rise since January. In fact, the TCF (Textile, Clothing and Footwear) Retail Index (seasonally adjusted, by Eurostat), which had been recovering modestly from June to November 2022, soared thereafter as if Christmas were an uninterrupted season for the entire first quarter of 2023, and even the imports’ behaviour seems to have anticipated a sales boom. Meanwhile, expectations for online sales in 2023 are overall positive, but comparisons with the pandemic period might be misleading
France Retail: prospects for the clothing and footwear sectors are still far from positive
The stabilization of the pattern of weakening French consumer confidence in the first quarter of the year cannot mask the pessimism that is still being felt in the country, especially in the context of social unrest. Moreover, in this reality of high inflation, neither do price increases hide the contraction in volumes sold nor is it possible to ignore the difficulties faced by companies more exposed to the domestic market due to increased operating costs (rents and energy) or even the stagnation of the online channel. Retail prospects for the clothing and footwear sectors are, therefore, still far from positive
Indian government considering monitoring imports of leather products
The Commerce Ministry in India is considering introducing an import monitoring system for the leather sector. Under such a system, the traders will have to provide advance information about the products to be imported
Japan retail: unlocking consumer confidence is key for retail
The volume of footwear imports closed 2022 about 10 percentage points below the 2015 baseline, suggesting that the impact of the imported inflation on prices has been clouding the real performance of retail sales in the category. Both the government and some companies have offered inflation allowances or anti-inflation subsidies, but given the saving Japanese mindset, it can be expected that any additional disposable income will not necessarily be used for discretionary shopping, such as clothing and footwear. To boost consumption, it is therefore needed to unlock consumer confidence, which improved only marginally In February, and appears now to be flattening
Brazil and Argentina defend the continuity of the TEC
Both the Brazilian Footwear Industries Association (Abicalçados) and the Footwear Industry Chamber from Argentina (CIC) stressed the importance of the External Tariff of Mercosur (TEC) for the sustainability of the sector
German footwear exports up by 19.4% in 2022
German footwear exports in 2022 grew in value by 19.4% over the prior year, totalling 9.6 billion euros, says the Federal Association of the German Footwear and Leather Goods Industry (HDS/L)
US Retail: slower growth for retail in the coming months
The available data suggests that footwear sales dipped in the last quarter of 2022. With inflation eating the wage growth and impacting the stability of the labour market, US consumers appear to have deemed footwear purchases as not essential. This situation is somewhat corroborated by the negative performances of several companies in the fashion category, such as Capri, Nordstrom and VF Corp, in the fourth quarter of the year. Their main concern relates to the excess inventory, which led to a highly promotional environment and caused imports to reduce. Accounting for the mixed feelings on the consumers’ side, it is safe to endorse cautious prospects for retail for these first months of 2023
Germany Retail: one swallow doesn’t make a summer
Despite the upturn in consumer confidence observed in the last quarter of 2022, there is still much concern among retailers. Footwear imports are following an upward trend since October, which could be read as a good sign concerning the health of retail, but German businesses are quite familiar with the sensitivity of their consumers to slight changes in overall economic conditions, and inflation is still expected to impact directly sales. Caution seems definitely to be the watchword at the start of 2023
Spain Retail: retailers and consumers have shown themselves resilient at the end of 2022
The Textile, Clothing, and Footwear (TCF) retail sales index has improved in the fourth quarter of last year and several companies in the category appear to be less fearful about 2023, especially after their positive annual results. Moreover, retailers’ and consumers’ confidence indicators are showing that despite some lingering pessimism due to the challenging macroeconomic environment, things won’t get necessarily worse in the short term.
UK Retail: bad odds for retail should consumer confidence remain on the floor
The Textile, Clothing, and Footwear (TCF) by the ONS stood above the 2019 baseline in the last two months of 2022, no doubt sustained by Christmas sales. But forecasts for the coming months are not so positive. The strain on household budgets due to the cost-of-living crisis will prove to be a challenge for retailers as well because while ongoing inflation will make sales appear to be rising, volumes will decline. Consumer confidence may be key in this equation. Even if it slightly improved in December, it was the first time in the GfK’s consumer confidence survey in the nearly 50-year history that a run of nine successive months of -40 pp or worse occurred. Should this continue, the odds are not good for retail
AAFA applauds nine-month extension of tariff exemption
The American Apparel & Footwear Association (AAFA) praised the Biden administration's decision of extending exclusions for many of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Chinese imports
Mexico: footwear imports grow five times faster than local production
According to the Chamber of the Footwear Industry of the State of Guanajuato (CICEG), 35% of the footwear worn by Mexicans is imported. This figure will most likely continue to increase
Denis Falardeau (Shoe Manufacturers Association of Canada): I am very optimistic for 2023
We spoke with Denis Falardeau, President of the Shoe Manufacturers Association of Canada, to better understand the trajectory of the Canadian footwear industry, the recent transformations in the country’s retail and why the industry is well-positioned for the future
Japan Retail: apparel and footwear retail will hardly remain safe amidst such troubling waters
The further easing of COVID-19 border control measures brought tourists back to the stores, but the anticipated consumption-led recovery is being curbed by the high wholesale inflation, as the weak yen is inflating the costs of imports. On the other end, if the yen depreciation is fostering exports, the fear of a global economic slowdown is a bearer of bad news. Both the Apparel & Accessories Retail and the Consumer Confidence indicator are currently trending down, and not to increase prices is no longer an option. As for online commerce, now that the pandemic boosting effect is over, the competitiveness between this channel and physical retail is at stake, however, it is yet soon to claim a winner
US Retail: not all news are bad for retail
The available data suggests that retailers made sure to fill up their stocks this year, most likely causing supply to outstrip demand. But while demand may have slowed down, mainly due to high inflation, spending has not ceased, and retailers are expected to increase their promotions through the end of the year to dispose of marked-down excess inventory. Consumer confidence indicators are somewhat mixed, but it is safe to assume that, at least, it has stopped bleeding. In fact, the contrast with European consumers is clear, showing that US shoppers are less sensitive to the geopolitical risks concerning the ongoing war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, though slowly, footwear prices increases are starting to decelerate-
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