Despite the upturn in consumer confidence observed in the last quarter of 2022, there is still much concern among retailers. Footwear imports are following an upward trend since October, which could be read as a good sign concerning the health of retail, but German businesses are quite familiar with the sensitivity of their consumers to slight changes in overall economic conditions, and inflation is still expected to impact directly sales. Caution seems definitely to be the watchword at the start of 2023   

The Textile, Clothing, and Footwear (TCF) retail sales index has improved in the fourth quarter of last year and several companies in the category appear to be less fearful about 2023, especially after their positive annual results. Moreover, retailers’ and consumers’ confidence indicators are showing that despite some lingering pessimism due to the challenging macroeconomic environment, things won’t get necessarily worse in the short term.   

Figures by the Banque de France suggest that retailers may have felt some relief in December 2022, but the weight of inflation in these results must not be overlooked, with turnover growing quite faster than the production itself. Moreover, the impact of inflation on footwear might yet be to be felt. French consumers tend to purchase the category during sales, but retailers may not be able to make the big discounts that would make consumers shop in a context of still significant inflation due to the need of preserving margins. However, there are signs of light at the end of the tunnel, as retailers’ and consumers’ confidence indicators show that there is room, at least, for the ceasing of confidence deterioration in 2023.   

The Textile, Clothing, and Footwear (TCF) by the ONS stood above the 2019 baseline in the last two months of 2022, no doubt sustained by Christmas sales. But forecasts for the coming months are not so positive. The strain on household budgets due to the cost-of-living crisis will prove to be a challenge for retailers as well because while ongoing inflation will make sales appear to be rising, volumes will decline. Consumer confidence may be key in this equation. Even if it slightly improved in December, it was the first time in the GfK’s consumer confidence survey in the nearly 50-year history that a run of nine successive months of -40 pp or worse occurred. Should this continue, the odds are not good for retail