World

From demographics to demand: what lies ahead for the footwear industry

Dec 17, 2025 Portugal

Demographic change, evolving consumer preferences, technological innovation and increasing economic fragmentation are reshaping the global footwear industry, a theme explored at an international conference held under the FAIST Agenda

As part of an international conference held under the FAIST Agenda (Agile, Intelligent, Sustainable and Technological Factory) and promoted by APICCAPS (the Portuguese Footwear, Components and Leather Goods Manufacturers’ Association) and CTCP (the Portuguese Technological Footwear Centre), Vasco Rodrigues, professor at the Catholic University, provided an overview of the global footwear industry from the perspectives of the past, present and future.

According to him, China’s entry into the WTO was a truly transformative event. During the first five years of its membership, exports more than doubled and continued to grow significantly, although growth has slowed since 2015. This has resulted in large international producers diversifying their supply chains, as they realised that they could easily export from China to the rest of the world and therefore began to transfer their production to Asia.

Today, 90% of the 24 billion pairs of shoes produced worldwide originate from Asia. The main producers are China, followed by India (which exports virtually nothing), Vietnam, Indonesia, and Pakistan. Notably, any one of these countries produces more shoes than Europe as a whole, which accounts for just 2.3% of global production.

In terms of footwear consumption, Asia ranks first once again. Europeans consume four pairs of shoes per person per year, North Americans consume five pairs, and Africans consume one pair, making Africa the only market yet to be explored. It is also clear from trade flows that Asia is the major hub of the global footwear business.

However, changes in consumer preferences and marketing channels have prompted significant shifts in the market. Notable examples include the rise of e-commerce and the decline in the importance of independent shoe shops, which have been overshadowed by larger, more dominant retail formats. As Vasco Rodrigues points out, “Through e-commerce, we can reach anywhere in the world, but not all companies have the structure and capacity to engage in this type of commerce”.

What Lies Ahead

There are a number of factors that could reshape the global footwear industry. Vasco Rodrigues highlights the first of these as being related to demographics. According to United Nations data, Asia and Africa are the two regions with the highest population densities. Europe is the only continent where a decline is expected.

While consumer preferences are more difficult to predict, it is possible to identify factors such as comfort, consumer sensitivity to sustainability, and the degree of consumer confidence in the product. Technology is also identified as a driving force capable of shaping the industry’s future.

In economic terms, we are experiencing a period of fragmentation and reconstruction of blocs. As Vasco Rodrigues points out, “the path that the US will take is highly unpredictable, and projections point to uneven global economic growth”. Growth in Europe is expected to be relatively slow compared to other regions. Additionally, there is a risk of a crisis affecting China.

More information about FAIST available on the project's website: HERE

Source and Image Credits: apiccaps.pt