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US: E-commerce to outpace overall retail holiday sales growth

Oct 6, 2026 United States

E-commerce growth in the US is expected to outpace overall retail sales growth from November 2026 to January 2027, according to Deloitte’s annual retail forecast

“Disposable personal income (DPI) remains an important input to our holiday retail forecast. We project DPI to grow between 4.5% to 5.2% during the holiday season, which we believe to be a strong predictor of retail and e-commerce sales”, commented Akrur Barua, economist at Deloitte Insights.

Consulting firm Deloitte has forecast that holiday retail sales in the US are expected to grow by between 4.0% and 4.8% compared to the same period in 2025, reaching between 1.70 and 1.71 trillion US dollars. Holiday sales increased by 4.1% in the same period in 2025.

Meanwhile, e-commerce sales should grow by between 7.5% and 8.4% year-on-year during this period, thus outpacing total retail sales growth rate. Deloitte forecasts that e-commerce sales will account for between 316.1 billion and 318.9 billion US dollars of overall retail sales this season.

“The continued growth in e-commerce sales is also expected to be aided by consumers’ ongoing use of digital tools to research, compare and complete purchases across all categories”, emphasised Akrur Barua.

Natalie Martini, vice chair of Deloitte and US retail and consumer products leader, added that US consumers “continue to place importance on making the holidays special for their friends and families, while also making deliberate choices about how they spend”.

She observed that, regardless of their income level, consumers continue to seek greater value for money by switching between brands and retailers, and by taking advantage of promotions to manage their spending.

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