World

Rising Geopolitical Risks Drive Footwear Costs Higher

Jun 1, 2026 Business Conditions Survey

Rising geopolitical tensions are expected to impact the global footwear industry mainly through higher costs rather than an immediate decline in consumer demand, according to the latest World Footwear Business Conditions Survey

When asked about the most likely transmission channels of the USA–Iran conflict, footwear industry experts point primarily to rising transportation and logistics costs, cited by 30.6% of respondents. With shipping routes facing heightened uncertainty and potential disruption, there is an anticipation of higher freight rates and more complex supply chain management.

Concerns over increasing raw material and input costs follow closely, highlighted by 27.8% of respondents. Footwear production relies heavily on globally sourced materials such as leather, synthetic components and rubber, all of which remain vulnerable to shifts in trade flows and pricing pressures driven by geopolitical instability.

Energy costs emerge as another key risk, identified by 18.5% of experts. Given the energy-intensive nature of both manufacturing and transportation, fluctuations in oil and gas prices are likely to translate rapidly into higher production and distribution expenses.

While mentioned less frequently, other impacts remain relevant. Around 10.2% of respondents point to delays or disruptions in supply chains, reflecting concerns over bottlenecks and longer lead times. Meanwhile, 8.3% expect a reduction in demand or consumption, suggesting that prolonged instability could eventually weigh on consumer confidence. A smaller share (4.6%) highlights the risk of increased exchange-rate and financial volatility, potentially adding further complexity to international trade.

Overall, the findings indicate that the most immediate and significant effects are expected on the supply and cost sides. Rather than a direct contraction in demand, companies are preparing for margin pressure stemming from rising operational costs and increased uncertainty in global logistics.

These insights are drawn from the latest edition of the World Footwear Business Conditions Survey. The results reinforce the growing perception that geopolitical developments are becoming a structural risk factor for the sector. As tensions persist, companies may need to reassess sourcing strategies, diversify supply chains and strengthen cost management practices to remain competitive in an increasingly volatile global environment.

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Contents

Executive Summary

Business Context

Health of the Business

Employment Level

Prices

Quantity

Difficulties

Retail Channels

Footwear Consumption in 2026

USA-Iran Conflict Impact on the Footwear Industry

USA-Iran Tensions: Mapping the Key Transmission Channels

From Suppliers to Shipping: The Real Impact of the USA–Iran Conflict

About Survey

About the Survey

In 2019, World Footwear established the World Footwear Experts Panel and has since conducted a Business Conditions Survey every semester. The survey aims to collect information on current business conditions in global footwear markets and provide a clear overview of the industry’s situation.

The fourteenth edition of this online survey was conducted in April 2026. It received 108 valid responses: 40% from Asia, 33% from Africa, 17% from Europe, 6% from South America, and 4% from North America. Almost half of the respondents, 47%, are involved in footwear manufacturing or in footwear trade and distribution. The remaining respondents work in other footwear-related activities, including education and research, trade associations, consultancy, and other areas.

Previous Editions of this Bulletin can be found HERE