USA - Iran Tensions seen as Rising Risk for Global Footwear Industry

Industry Perception: Risk is Already Material
When asked about the likelihood that the USA–Iran conflict will have a significant negative impact on the footwear sector in their country in 2026, 44.4% of respondents rated it as high or very high. A further 30.6% rated it as moderate, suggesting that nearly three-quarters of the industry expect at least some level of disruption.

By contrast, only around one-quarter of respondents consider the risk to be low or very low. This distribution highlights a clear shift in sentiment: geopolitical instability is no longer a distant or abstract concern, but rather a concrete business risk shaping expectations across the sector.

Overall, the balance between pessimistic (high and very high) and optimistic (low and very low) views stands at +19 percentage points, confirming a negative tilt in industry sentiment. However, this concern is not evenly distributed geographically.

Regional Divide: North America and Europe Most Exposed
The perception of risk intensifies significantly in Western markets. In North America, the balance between high and low impact expectations reaches 50 percentage points, while in Europe it stands at 44 percentage points. This suggests that companies operating in or supplying these regions feel particularly vulnerable to geopolitical shocks linked to the conflict.

Several factors may explain this heightened sensitivity, including stronger exposure to global financial volatility, reliance on complex international supply chains, and closer alignment with US foreign policy dynamics. In contrast, other regions show more mixed or moderate expectations, reflecting differing levels of exposure and resilience.

In 2019, World Footwear established the World Footwear Experts Panel and has since conducted a Business Conditions Survey every semester. The objective of the survey is to gather information on current business conditions within global footwear markets and to disseminate an accurate overview of the industry’s situation. 

The thirteenth edition of this online survey was conducted during October and November 2025. We have obtained 106 valid answers, 39% from Asia, 35% from Africa, 12% from Europe, 8% from North America, 5% from Oceania, and 1% from South America. More than half of respondents (56%) are involved in footwear manufacturing (manufacturers) or footwear trade and distribution (traders) and the remainder in other footwear-related activities, including consultancy (7%), education and research (7%), trade associations (6%), and other activities (25%).

Previous Editions of this Bulletin can be found HERE