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US holiday sales to grow at a slower pace

Sep 29, 2022 United States
US holiday sales to grow at a slower pace
Due to inflation, US holiday retail sales are likely to increase in the 2022-2033 holiday season at a slower pace than last year. E-commerce might be an opportunity as consumers try to maximize their spending
According to Deloitte's annual holiday retail forecast, holiday retail sales are likely to increase between 4% and 6% from November to January 2023, year-over-year, reaching 1.45 trillion US dollars to 1.47 trillion US dollars. Last year's holiday sales grew at a 15.1% rate, amounting to 1.39 trillion US dollars.

"Retail sales are likely to be further affected by declining demand for durable consumer goods, which had been the centrepiece of pandemic spending. However, we anticipate more spending on consumer services, such as restaurants, as the effects of the pandemic continue to wane", commented Daniel Bachman, Deloitte's U.S. economic forecaster, adding that "inflation will also help to raise dollar sales, although retailers will see less growth in sales volume".

Deloitte also forecasts that e-commerce sales will grow by 12.8% to 14.3%, year-over-year, which will most likely result in a total of 260 billion US dollars to 264 billion US dollars. E-commerce sales between November 2021 and January were up by 8.4% totalling 231 billion US dollars.

"As inflation weighs on consumer demand, we can expect consumers to continue to shift how they spend their holiday budget this upcoming season. Retail sales are set to increase as a result of higher prices, and this dynamic has the potential to further drive e-commerce sales as consumers look for online deals to maximize their spending", explained Nick Handrinos, vice chair, Deloitte LLP, and US retail, wholesale and distribution and consumer products leader.

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