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Brazilian footwear industry outlook points to stability in 2026

Apr 24, 2026 Brazil

The performance of the Brazilian footwear industry is expected to remain broadly stable in 2026, following a challenging start to the year marked by weak domestic consumption and falling export figures

According to the Brazilian Footwear Industries Association (Abicalçados), production is projected to range from a 1.2% decline in a pessimistic scenario to growth of up to 1.4% in an optimistic scenario. Total output is expected to reach approximately 848 million pairs, in line with the previous year.

The sector came under pressure in the early months of 2026, with production declining amid subdued domestic and international demand.

External conditions continue to impact performance. Weak demand in key export markets, including the United States and Argentina, combined with strong competition from Asian producers, particularly those in China, has constrained export activity. At the same time, global geopolitical tensions and high interest rates have continued to curb consumer spending.

However, looking ahead, industry analysts expect a gradual recovery in the second half of the year, supported by improving economic conditions and a potential easing of global uncertainties.

“It will depend heavily on the international economic climate and the pace of the Brazilian economy”. “For the second half, we expect the conflict in the Middle East to be resolved, which could lead to cost relief and a recovery in the international market”, said Priscila Linc, economist and Market Intelligence Coordinator at Abicalçados.

Still, despite the possibility of improvement later in the year, exports are still expected to decline by between 4.1% and 8.9% in 2026.

By constrast, domestic consumption is projected to grow by between 0.5% and 3.1%, which will support production levels – the domestic market continues to account for the majority of output, absorbing around 88% of total production. Imports are also expected to continue increasing.

Image Credits: Samuel Costa Melo on Unsplash

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