This will be significantly higher than the 10-year average of 2.5% growth and above the seven-year average of 3.4% since recovery began in 2009.

Additionally, the NRF is forecasting non-store sales to increase between 7% and 10% to as much as 117 billion US dollars.

“All of the fundamentals are in a good place, giving strength to consumers and leading us to believe that this will be a very positive holiday season”, NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “This year hasn’t been perfect, starting with a long summer and unseasonably warm fall, but our forecast reflects the very realistic steady momentum of the economy and industry expectations. We remain optimistic that the pace of economic activity will pick up in the near term,” continued Mr. Shay. 

“Consumers have seen steady job and income gains throughout the year, resulting in continued confidence and the greater use of credit, which bodes well for more spending throughout the holiday season,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz stated.

According to NRF, retailers are expected to hire between 640 000 and 690 000 seasonal workers this holiday season, in line with last year’s 675 300 new holiday positions.

NRF is the world’s largest retail trade association, representing discount and department stores, home goods and specialty stores, Main Street merchants, grocers, wholesalers, chain restaurants and Internet retailers.